Development and Evaluation of Chemistry-Aerosol-Climate Model CAM5-Chem-MAM7-MOSAIC: Global Atmospheric Distribution and Radiative Effects of Nitrate Aerosol.

An advanced aerosol treatment, with a focus on semivolatile nitrate formation, is introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with interactive chemistry (CAM5-chem) by coupling the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) with the 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7). An important feature of MOSAIC is dynamic partitioning of all condensable gases to the different fine and coarse mode aerosols, as governed by mode-resolved thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemical reactions. Applied in the free-running mode from 1995 to 2005 with prescribed historical climatological conditions, the model simulates global distributions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in good agreement with observations and previous studies. Inclusion of nitrate resulted in ∼10% higher global average accumulation mode number concentrations, indicating enhanced growth of Aitken mode aerosols from nitrate formation. While the simulated accumulation mode nitrate burdens are high over the anthropogenic source regions, the sea-salt and dust modes respectively constitute about 74% and 17% of the annual global average nitrate burden. Regional clear-sky shortwave radiative cooling of up to -5 W m-2 due to nitrate is seen, with a much smaller global average cooling of -0.05 W m-2. Significant enhancements in regional cloud condensation nuclei (at 0.1% supersaturation) and cloud droplet number concentrations are also attributed to nitrate, causing an additional global average shortwave cooling of -0.8 W m-2. Taking into consideration of changes in both longwave and shortwave radiation under all-sky conditions, the net change in the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes induced by including nitrate aerosol is -0.7 W m-2.

Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations.

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a major uncertainty in climate research. Studies have indicated that model estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols frequently exceed satellite estimates, motivating model reformulations to increase agreement. Here we show that conventional ways of using satellite information to estimate susceptibility can serve as only a weak constraint on models because the estimation is sensitive to errors in the retrieval procedures. Using instrument simulators to investigate differences between model and satellite estimates of susceptibilities, we find that low aerosol loading conditions are not well characterized by satellites, but model clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations in these conditions. We quantify the observational requirements needed to constrain models, and find that the nighttime lidar measurements of aerosols provide a better characterization of tenuous aerosols. We conclude that observational uncertainties and limitations need to be accounted for when assessing the role of aerosols in the climate system.

Dust-wind interactions can intensify aerosol pollution over eastern China.

Eastern China has experienced severe and persistent winter haze episodes in recent years due to intensification of aerosol pollution. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, the winter aerosol pollution over eastern China is associated with unusual meteorological conditions, including weaker wind speeds. Here we show, based on model simulations, that during years with decreased wind speed, large decreases in dust emissions (29%) moderate the wintertime land-sea surface air temperature difference and further decrease winds by -0.06 (±0.05) m s-1 averaged over eastern China. The dust-induced lower winds enhance stagnation of air and account for about 13% of increasing aerosol concentrations over eastern China. Although recent increases in anthropogenic emissions are the main factor causing haze over eastern China, we conclude that natural emissions also exert a significant influence on the increases in wintertime aerosol concentrations, with important implications that need to be taken into account by air quality studies.

Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo.

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd ), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the Nd to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the Nd to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol-climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between Nd and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol-cloud interactions in satellite data.

Inter-comparisons of marine boundary layer cloud properties from the ARM CAP-MBL campaign and two MODIS cloud products.

From April 2009 to December 2010, the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program carried out an observational field campaign on Graciosa Island, targeting the marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds over the Azores region. In this paper, we present an inter-comparison of the MBL cloud properties, namely, cloud liquid water path (LWP), cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud-droplet effective radius (CER), among retrievals from the ARM mobile facility (AMF) and two Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud products (GSFC-MODIS and CERES-MODIS). A total of 63 daytime single-layer MBL cloud cases are selected for inter-comparison. Comparison of collocated retrievals indicates that the two MODIS cloud products agree well on both COT and CER retrievals, with the correlation coefficient R>0.95. despite their significant difference in spatial sampling. In both MODIS products, the CER retrievals based on the 2.1 µm band (CER2.1) is significantly smaller than that based on the 3.7 µm band (CER3.7). The GSFC-MODIS cloud product is collocated and compared with ground-based ARM observations at several temporal-spatial scales. In general, the correlation increases with more precise collocation. For the 63 selected MBL cloud cases, the GSFC-MODIS LWP and COT retrievals agree reasonably well with the ground-based observations with no apparent bias and correlation coefficient R around 0.85 and 0.70, respectively. However, GSFC-MODIS CER3.7 and CER2.1 retrievals have a lower correlation (R~0.5) with the ground-based retrievals. For the 63 selected cases, they are on average larger than ground observations by about 1.5 µm and 3.0 µm, respectively. Taking into account that the MODIS CER retrievals are only sensitive to cloud top reduces the bias only by 0.5 µm.

SAM-CAAM: A Concept for Acquiring Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses.

A modest operational program of systematic aircraft measurements can resolve key satellite-aerosol-data-record limitations. Satellite observations provide frequent, global aerosol-amount maps, but offer only loose aerosol property constraints needed for climate and air quality applications. We define and illustrate the feasibility of flying an aircraft payload to measure key aerosol optical, microphysical, and chemical properties in situ. The flight program could characterize major aerosol air-mass types statistically, at a level-of-detail unobtainable from space. It would: (1) enhance satellite aerosol retrieval products with better climatology assumptions, and (2) improve translation between satellite-retrieved optical properties and species-specific aerosol mass and size simulated in climate models to assess aerosol forcing, its anthropogenic components, and other environmental impacts. As such, Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses (SAM-CAAM) could add value to data records representing several decades of aerosol observations from space, improve aerosol constraints on climate modeling, help interrelate remote-sensing, in situ, and modeling aerosol-type definitions, and contribute to future satellite aerosol missions. Fifteen Required Variables are identified, and four Payload Options of increasing ambition are defined, to constrain these quantities. "Option C" could meet all the SAM-CAAM objectives with about 20 instruments, most of which have flown before, but never routinely several times per week, and never as a group. Aircraft integration, and approaches to data handling, payload support, and logistical considerations for a long-term, operational mission are discussed. SAM-CAAM is feasible because, for most aerosol sources and specified seasons, particle properties tend to be repeatable, even if aerosol loading varies.

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

Challenges in constraining anthropogenic aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing using present-day spatiotemporal variability.

A large number of processes are involved in the chain from emissions of aerosol precursor gases and primary particles to impacts on cloud radiative forcing. Those processes are manifest in a number of relationships that can be expressed as factors dlnX/dlnY driving aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing. These factors include the relationships between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and emissions, droplet number and CCN concentration, cloud fraction and droplet number, cloud optical depth and droplet number, and cloud radiative forcing and cloud optical depth. The relationship between cloud optical depth and droplet number can be further decomposed into the sum of two terms involving the relationship of droplet effective radius and cloud liquid water path with droplet number. These relationships can be constrained using observations of recent spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. However, we are most interested in the radiative forcing since the preindustrial era. Because few relevant measurements are available from that era, relationships from recent variability have been assumed to be applicable to the preindustrial to present-day change. Our analysis of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) model simulations suggests that estimates of relationships from recent variability are poor constraints on relationships from anthropogenic change for some terms, with even the sign of some relationships differing in many regions. Proxies connecting recent spatial/temporal variability to anthropogenic change, or sustained measurements in regions where emissions have changed, are needed to constrain estimates of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud radiative forcing.

Evaluation of the aerosol vertical distribution in global aerosol models through comparison against CALIOP measurements: AeroCom phase II results.

The ability of 11 models in simulating the aerosol vertical distribution from regional to global scales, as part of the second phase of the AeroCom model intercomparison initiative (AeroCom II), is assessed and compared to results of the first phase. The evaluation is performed using a global monthly gridded data set of aerosol extinction profiles built for this purpose from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer Product 3.01. Results over 12 subcontinental regions show that five models improved, whereas three degraded in reproducing the interregional variability in Z α0-6 km, the mean extinction height diagnostic, as computed from the CALIOP aerosol profiles over the 0-6 km altitude range for each studied region and season. While the models' performance remains highly variable, the simulation of the timing of the Z α0-6 km peak season has also improved for all but two models from AeroCom Phase I to Phase II. The biases in Z α0-6 km are smaller in all regions except Central Atlantic, East Asia, and North and South Africa. Most of the models now underestimate Z α0-6 km over land, notably in the dust and biomass burning regions in Asia and Africa. At global scale, the AeroCom II models better reproduce the Z α0-6 km latitudinal variability over ocean than over land. Hypotheses for the performance and evolution of the individual models and for the intermodel diversity are discussed. We also provide an analysis of the CALIOP limitations and uncertainties contributing to the differences between the simulations and observations.

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.